Federica Giardina: Statistical methods to estimate the size of the undiagnosed HIV-1 infected population

Abstract: Knowledge of the size of the undiagnosed HIV-1 infected population is highly relevant for public health and HIV-1 prevention. In 2014, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS launched an international target that aims at reaching 90% of all people living with HIV diagnosed by 2020. In the first part of this talk I will discuss the main challenges involved in the estimation of the undiagnosed HIV-1 population at the end of 2015 in Sweden, where HIV has been relatively stable over the past few years. In the second part, I will describe a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model allowing for the presence of undiagnosed infections. I will show some preliminary results on parameter identifiability at the end of an outbreak based on data availability (e.g. temporal data or sequence data).