Gebrenegus Ghilagaber: A Warm-Up for the 2018 FIFA World Cup - Modelling Effects of 3-points-for-a-win Rule in Football

We examine the effects of the 3-point-for-a-win (3pfaw) rule in the football (soccer) world. Data on mean goals and proportions of decided matches from seven leagues around the world form the basis of our analyses. Bayesian change-point analysis shows that the rule had no effects on the mean goals in any of the leagues but, indeed, had increasing effects on the proportion of decided matches in some of the leagues studied. This, in turn, implies that while the rule has given teams the incentive to aim at winning games, such aim was not achieved by scoring more goals but by scoring enough in order to win and, at the same, defending enough in order not to lose.

Joint work with Parfait Munezero, Department of Statistics