Erik Villaume: Predicting customer level risk patterns in non-life insurance

Several models for predicting future customer profitability early into customer life-cycles in the property and casualty business are constructed and studied. The objective is to model risk at a customer level with input data available early into a private consumer's lifespan. Two retained models, one using Generalized Linear Model, another using a multilayer perceptron, a special form of Artificial Neural Network, are evaluated using actual data. Numerical results show that differentiation on estimated future risk is most effective for customers with highest claim frequencies.