Abid Ali Lashari: Branching process approach for epidemics in dynamic partnership network

Abstract: We study the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) on a specific dynamic network by using a branching process approach. The nodes in the network represent the sexually active individuals, while connections represent sexual partnerships. This network is dynamic as partnerships are formed and broken over time and individuals enter and leave the sexual active population due to demography. We discuss branching process approximation for the initial stages of an outbreak of the STI and characterize the basic reproduction number and the probability of extinction. In addition, we expose the dependencies between individuals and show how these dependencies complicate the branching process approximation.

This talk is based on joint work with Pieter Trapman.