PhD course in Mathematical Statistics: Stochastic Epidemic Models - fundamentals, 4hp

The course will start Thursday May 12 at 13.15-15.

Please register asap by sending an e-mail to tom.britton@math.su.se

Examination: Hand-in assignments plus written and oral presentation of individual projects 

Lecturer: Tom Britton (and one guest lecture by Etienne Pardoux) 

Pre-requisits: knowledge of stochastic processes and probability (e.g. Probability III and Stochastic processes III). 

Preparation: It is helpful to prepare by reading: Stochastic epidemic models: a survey. T Britton. (2010). Math. Biosci, 225, 24-35. 

Literature: New lecture notes will be handed out. Most material can also be found in Diekmann et al (2013) Mathematical tools for understanding infectious disease dynamics. Princeton UP, and/or Andersson and Britton (2000),  Stochastic epidemic models and their statistical analysis. Springer Lecture Notes in Statistics, 151. Springer-Verlag, New York. 

The course is given some (but not all) Mondays and Thursdays at 13.15-15 with one exception (June 2: 10.15-12) 

 

Tentative Schedule of Classes

• Thursday May 12, 13.15-15

  Contents: Introduction, the basic model, exact results for small communities

• Thursday May 19, 13.15-15

  
  
  Contents: Branching processes and early stage approximation of epidemic 

• Monday May 23, 13.15-15

  Contents: Final size approximation: Sellke construction, LLN, CLT

• Monday May 30, 13.15-15

  Contents: Process convergence: weak convergence of the Makovian SIR

• Thursday June 2, 10.15-12

  Contents: Duration of the epidemic and vaccination 

• Thursday June 9, 13.15-15

  Contents: Open populations, time to extinction and critical population size 

• Monday June 13, 13.15-15

  Contents: Extensions and student presentations

• Thursday June 16, 13.15-15

  Contents: Large deviations (guest lecture by Etienne Pardoux, preliminary) 

 

 

 Information on the course can be found on the  Course Webpage

Welcome!