Karin Nordin: Modellering av Covid-19 m.h.a Ordinåra Differentialekvatione

Abstract.

This paper presents and analyses mathematical models based on ordinary dierential equations (ODE) to study infectious deceases, in particular the Covid-19 pandemic in Sweden. The aim of the models are to capture the relations between the dierent stages in the model. The main focus in this paper is to study analytical solutions to the two models; Susceptible-Infected- Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) and com- pare these solutions to numerical solutions. Using available data from the Covid-19 pandemic in Sweden the two models and their parameters will be calibrated to fit said data to show how important mathematical modeling can be to forecast the spread of infectious deceases.