Hansjoerg Albrecher: Flood Risk Modelling: Methodology and Challenges

Abstract: Floods are among the major natural hazards and suitable models for the respective risks are of particular importance for the management of natural disasters. In this talk we discuss various approaches towards modelling flood risk events together with the challenges that arise in practical implementations. Particular emphasis will be given on the choice of the underlying spatial and temporal dependence model, the modelling of extremes as well as on diversification possibilities for this type of risk. We illustrate the analysis with concrete case studies for paleoflood data from lake sediments in the Alps as well as recent insurance loss data on European floods.